Today is Wednesday the 13th of March and we’ve had an absolutely insane day of ETF flows. The first time over a billion net inflows, as you can see here in the inflow chart. Mostly driven by grayscale selling, really dropping off grayscale, basically sold no bitcoin. So, and BlackRock alone took an 850 million.
That’s huge. And to kind of speculate on the lack of grade scale selling, you saw, you know, a couple of weeks ago and it was lower, then it increased again and increased and increased. So this going from 200 to 500 to 400 to 300 to 200 to 300 and back to 500 like that heavy selling, that was persistent.
Heavy outflows, I should say, you was probably one of those last liquidators. May be it was Gemini, may be it was some Celsius, may be it was the end of the ft. Texas State. Whatever. There’s a bunch of people wanna dump GBDC and most of them have probably done now. So we could see lower GBDC selling from here on, which would obviously only increase the potential for upside. And the other ones, the other nine are’nt stopping, are they? Bit of a, apart from minor outflows.
And one of them is just, this was all BlackRock yesterday. This is f*****g crazy They must have had the marketing machine in full flow. So anyway, while that’s good, um, it does raise one question, which is why was price able to drop back so much yesterday after touching that high if, uh, if there was such heavy flows?
I think the simple answer is too much long, too many longs. And it was purely a leveraged liquidation move, right? So too many longs tried to get in, kept longing, longing, first them out, back the old time high, held it all the way back up and away it goes. And I think we’re just gonna keep seeing this until something changes. So what I wanna look back at now, uh, well first thing, this is the best market ever to just be a spot holder, right?
It’s just gonna keep drifting higher and higher and higher and higher. Nothing’s gonna change this until it hits a level where spot sellers are actually willing and motivated to sell. So what does that actually mean? Well, think about the only times we’ve had pullbacks on this rally. we had a pullback after the ETFs launch because a lot of people said sell the news. And a bunch of people actually did sell the news.
They were just wrong, right? And that’s it, that’s the only correction we’ve had. But the, there was a reason for it, right? There was an event, there was an ETF event, ETFs went live. There was a new wave of buyers opened up. Some people thought, oh that’s it. I’m gonna dump into them. Sin e then, there hasn’t been a reason. We touched the all time high (ATH). We had a flash crash.
Makes sense, right? Because touching the all time high (ATH), some people sell, but they, they were f*****g reminded by the market within three days, that was a dumb thing to do because you’re right back up there. Some of them are probably scrambling to rebuy now, but they’re certainly not gonna keep selling when Bitcoin this much strength. So now, and this sort becomes a guessing game. Now where does Bitcoin top next?
Like you know, my thoughts are very clear, I think Bitcoin should be a f*****g million dollars a coin and it will eventually, I think that’s 10 year or more away. But where can it go to this cycle? This is now, this is the time when all these questions are valid because you’ve clearly broken all time high, rejected once, rejected twice, broke above. This is now our third day above it. We’re above all time high (ATH). We’ve broken it, right?
You can be more confident saying that because we’ve already had an all time high retest. So of course if it goes below 68, things change. If it goes below 68, that’s potential for this to be a false breakout. But that reaction yesterday with a billion dollars of buying net inflows a billion whenever Bitcoin is only 60 Million produced per day of new BTC. But I don’t want you to think that it means we can’t go down. But there’s a few questions that I had.
Will ETFs buy above 70K, right? We know they’ve been buying up heavily below 70k because they’ve been buying all the way up to where we are. Will they buy above 7500 Million? 1 Billion? Yes, That’s 1.5 Billion in two days. So above all time high there’s been 1.5 billion inflows in two days. Block block rewards emissions are about 130 million in two days. There’s 900 BTC per day produced. So. 900 times, let’s call it 71K is 63 million. So basically 130 millions in those two days. That 1.5 billion is more than 10 times.
But for those older Bitcoin that people are holding, they have to have a reason to sell. Why would they sell when all they see is strength? So there’s just so much demand and genuinely not enough supply. And that’s the number one equation of markets. That’s law number one. And it’s just gonna keep going up. And it might sound crazy or it might sound like f*****g being a moon boy, but you know, I’m not.
Yesterday I was saying that was uh, a good chance of being a local top. It still could be , but the odds have diminished greatly because that’s not the reaction you would see from a local top. This is just a reaction of a market that is on a steady grind higher until it reached some level where it’ll pull back. Where could that be? There’s only really two ways.
One you run outta buyers, right? So that can either be in previous bull markets, that would be everyone when everyone has finally given in, in into FOMO and bought, right? But that was when we just really had retail plus, you know, some whale buyers. But now we’ve got this steady drip of just seemingly endless demand.
And this thing is, even if the demand drops, it’s not gonna drop back to, you know, it’s the last couple days have been crazy, Seven-fifty million per day when there’s only 63 million of new issuance. But even if it drops back to 200 million, that’s still more than 60 million.
And then next month the new issuance drops to 30 million or 35 or 40 depending on Bitcoin’s price. So demands outstripping supply. Now what can happen on lower timeframes is shakeouts like we’ve seen. And but that’s purely leverage. So too much leverage comes in, it gets flushed out, buyers but it back up.
It’s really just been holding the four hour bands all the way with the occasional below as low as the towards 50 MA. And it’s not necessarily a good place to trade because at some point this idea of just blindly buying the dip will stop working. It’s an amazing place to be a spot holder. So until something changes, this is how it’s just gonna move And the you need an event. So the halving is an event.
Now if everyone, if we go higher, if we go to 80K and we’re coming into the halving and Bitcoin, everyone’s just talking about a 100k is just inevitable and then we hit the halving, maybe that’s a local peak in, you know, in sentiment where there’s just so many eyeballs on Bitcoin, so much genuine euphoria, so much attention and everyone’s long that it just has to talk locally. But I also don’t see why that necessarily would happen.
It’s just like you can say that it should do or it shouldn’t do whatever. But if you’re, if you’re holding and you’re spot long. Don’t over complicate it. I even said this last time when I was talking about that sell off and the potential for local top. I was like, doesn’t make me bearish. Don’t sell a single coin. Don’t short.
Those are principles have remained the same all the way. We have been very consistent with that. And do not short in this bull market, do not sell your coins unless you think it’s the top, so many people this curse, that people have and it is a curse that they get infected by this f*****g disease of, where did I write about it is f*****g selling to buy back lower is total nonsense. I do know where the f**k I said it. May be it was in one of chats.
People are like, oh I’m gonna sale some of my Bitcoin but buy it back lower. Yeah, well good luck with that, right? How many people do you think have sold over here to buy back at lower waiting for a 55K or waiting for 48K or waiting for 40K or waiting for 30% correction at this rate, we might get a 30% correction from 90K, may be right? May be it just keeps grinding up until people f*****g fully give in and think a 100K definitely coming and then we pulled back from 90K.
But who knows? You do not wanna be guessing that. I also don’t know if it’ll do like a, you know what would, it’s look, this is the other thing. Bitcoin’s not gonna do what we typically have seen it do in the past. Because it’s different market map. This time is different right! above the ATH before the halving, ETFs that we didn’t have before. It is different. And so the demand display demand dynamics have totally changed.
It does not means that we have to be really clear with it. Doesn’t mean we can’t pull back. Of course, we can, But as a spot holder, this is just exactly what you wanna see. Just exactly what you wanna see. Just endless relentless strength and just keep holding. Don’t stop yourself into making bad decisions with your spot bags. And also you don’t need to add long leverage, right?
People are trying to make more on their stack. People who are using their Bitcoin to take leverage trades on top and trying to be greedy are just giving their Bitcoin away in these liquidity sweep wicks, right? By getting shaken out and it’s greed, I need to make more. But by trying more, you end up losing some.
And if you’re fully allocated into Bitcoin and then you’re using Bitcoin as collateral to go long, you are literally giving your Bitcoin away, because when you lose that trade, you lose some Bitcoin, you’re not gonna get it back. So resist the temptation to be greedy.
There are a few paths, I’m still definitely of the opinion that 75K needs to break for the biggest moves to happen, right? 75K, I think brings 80k, but anything below 75k is still a place for some resistance to form. Now, with the way it held the all time high (ATH), I would expect it to just hold in this area. First of all, drift higher. There is obviously a chance that all of this is still just a top and yesterday we took out that out, we drop back down, we go lower.
If so, looking at that 50k, 60k, 58k, 60k area and of course it might just keep following these bands and just grind all the way up before proper blow off towards before a proper blow off towards a 100K before an actual proper correction. There will be one. But you know, be careful listening to the people on Twitter, who just keep saying, oh, there’s a pullback, this pull, don’t worry, 30% pullbacks.
It’s like saying don’t worry, price will eventually go down. Be cool, That’s not exactly the genius thing to say. We know it’ll, there will be a pullback. The question is when it come and is it a pullback you wanna buy? We don’t know that. All we do know is that every dip gets bought, be getting bought up by strong spot demand. It’s a situation we’ve never seen before. So just let it play out. There’s all the paths that can happen. Um, I think lower timeframes we might see something like the red, red path here, where this, this rally up as good as it’s been.
And this can give reversal, right? That the reversal is so nice it’s broken out. But this now, like as we’re sitting here, is gonna cause emotional buying. Because all the people who got shaken out or stopped out or sold the coins to buy back lower, now have to buy back higher. There’s a really goof chance here that people make bad decision on lower timeframe and get shaken at it. Or you could see, you know, a drop back, a dip back, watch the EMA, watch the 72K level, 70K whatever, but basically above all, all time high Bitcoin is currently in all time high breakout.
So looks good, We’ll see there was a, you know, I can’t believe those flows. So we’ll see. Do they continue but also look at the price along with it. The thing about the flows being so strong is that it, it was bought at the dip, was bought up heavily and we pushed higher. If you see a billion dollars of flows and price doesn’t go up, that’s in itself a red flag. Because it means all those heavy flows are meeting resistance. But they did not meet resistance and they pushed back through it. So be mindful as well all of this move here.
So from 71K, this has all happened since the daily open. This is not like ETF buying. This is the people trying to front run that so don’t be surprised if there’s a short term pullback. Don’t be surprised, if there’s leverage liquidation, deep wicks, all that kinda stuff. This can still happen. But you know, in totality, can you say anything other than this is strong? No, it’s strong. Looks good.
This is what we’ve been waiting for spot until, and the opportunities to add long positions will come at some point. The opportunity to buy the proper dip will. Alt coins, you know, are getting set up for a decent correction at some point. As long as Bitcoin keeps going on, Alts will keep grinding up. But nothing goes up forever. Bitcoin has infinite bid. Alt don’t. Eventually we’ll see some kind of decent pullbacks and that’s your next time to take, you know, long positions.
Other than that, just stay spot long. That’d be my opinion. Selling here makes absolutely zero sense. That’s like key point. Selling spot cycle bags, long-term bags just doesn’t make sense. This can go, as you can see, it can go far higher than you think and you don’t wanna be on the sidelines when that happens.
Sayonara – That’s all for Today, Do give your feedback.
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