Good Morning, Friday the 15th of March. Let’s look at Bitcoin daily levels. So, local top is in now, talked about the potential of it a few days ago, dropping back below the old all time high (ATH), obviously is the real tell. However, I already see a lot of, you know, instant flipping back to bearishness and bears doing victory laps.
And I’m already seeing how it’s all over and how Michael Saylor predicted the top by calling everyone poor on tv, which was pretty funny and was to probably a top signal. But I get the sense that the same thing is gonna happen again and again and again, which is that bears are gonna get frustrated and bulls who said they wanted to buy the dip won’t get a dip. That’s deep enough.
So I would like to see, and what I think we do see is a, a rally up, a push down, some re-accumulation, away we go, right?
That’s what I would expect to see. It’s what I’d like to see is what you normally would see. But you have to sit and think, well, what’s actually gonna take what’s gonna take the froth outta the market if we’re talking about froth as in there’s too many people getting long, it’s a little bitt, uh, overextended. Where would it go from here?
Look at Liquidations, everything’s down a nice amount, nice reaction of PTC so far. Uh, but we’ll look at the liquidations taken out PC needs. So just look at all the Alts and then we’ll look at Bitcoin by itself.
So Let’s go to a daily, decent liquidation, especially because it’s been two days consecutive, right? So it’s not as big a spike as we had previous time, but if you put the last two days together, it’s not far off it, right? That’s important to note as well, where we’ve had a couple of strong days, there’s obviously potential for it to go a good bit lower. I would like to ideally see it go lower.
Alt coins has been rising steadily all the way through the market, Question is, is this gonna be the top? And if it is the top, how long is it the top four? If it is the top, it needs to either go down fast enough or make a not a new high for long enough, right? So if you bought above 70K, you’re now obviously underwater.
There was like FOMO buying on the ETFs potentially that day we had the billion dollars. I mentioned that if there’s such amount of buying but price doesn’t continue going up, then you have to ask yourself who’s doing that buying. So the potential, again, that could just be big players accumulating a lot of Bitcoin, but it doesn’t mean we can’t have pullback.
The main thing for me is when will people actually start to de-risk and start to think it’s going go lower? I think that’s now not after. So it’s easy whenever there’s a sell off to get into the reflexive mindset of, oh, this is gonna keep selling off. And you can see that with a bunch of coins having already dipped, you know, overnight.
Um, look at some of the AI ones like RENDER had a deep dip there, took out the lows, fetch, deep dip, took out the lows, AKASH(AKTUSDT) is pullback. But look at that and think, well isn’t this just exactly what we had over here? And so far it is, right? It’s down below the bands at the moment looks like it was gonna go then, reclaimed last week or couple of weeks ago and ripped higher.
I actually like from an AI perspective, I like the fact that we’re having a sell off before the Nvidia conference because that’s gonna make it likely that people panic and puke their positions before the conference. So it’s early to say, but wanna look at low timeframes of AI coins. And I’ll do that a bit more in, in trade of the day, but Nvidia is holding up quire nicely, holding above the bands big selling.
But since then there hasn’t been followed through. It’s not broken that low yet. And you know, I wouldn’t be rushing to, to get out of any positions here. Like spot wise, No. Uh, as for the majors Bitcoin, Eth right? Eth just pulled back to this level, right?
This previous breakout point, that’s exactly where you’d wanna see ETH find support. It’s find support there for now. Doesn’t mean it can’t go to work, of course it can, but you know, if there’s gonna be a reversal that people aren’t expecting, it’s gonna be from here, right?
Because it’s gonna have triggered a lot of people to say, oh, that’s it, that’s top, because Bitcoin lost the old all time high(ATH), right? The 69K level is 69 point. Where were we? 69.2. There we go. That old all time high (ATH) level and we’ve sold off below it.
so on the lower timeframes, there’s three pushes. We had that first push down yesterday during the New York session, took out those lows, railed up down again, tried to bounce down again, So it’s actually far more likely to go up than down from here. It’s taken out a bunch of stops all the way down.
If it goes any lower, it’s gonna probably drift towards 60K level, but I would say there’s gonna be strong demand there because it’s dropped off quickly, right? What is this off? That’s 11% off the high. That’s, that’s a bull market dip that you buy. Are people buying this? I don’t see it. I see people saying it’s over bears gloating thinking that it’s all done.
I don’t know. I’m f*****g half tempted to get along here. Some lower timeframe price action on BTC. It’s probably I’m watching these, these 15 minute bands. If these bans, if it consolidates in the bans here starts to move up and they start to flip green, I think that’s, uh, a decent sign that the bottom’s probably in and bitcoin goes up and next thing we’re above 70 again and next thing everyone’s excited and the people who panicked and sold have one the same thing again and made the same mistake once again.
Wouldn’t be surprised. Like, but it’s also, so I think the, the point of what I’m trying to say is here, I don’t know if the top is in, or how long the tops in for. We have topped obviously talked about this the other day, but we’ve come back to where our most recent support was, right?
Price was holding in this are quite a bit. It’s still holding there. Yeah, it looks like it should go lower. Feels like it should go lower, but the market doesn’t do what you, uh, think it should do by how you look and feel. So if it’s gonna do this third, I wouldn’t be surprised. Basically, if we saw another rally up, right?
Everyone got excited, then it went for the second and third legs over the next, you know, whatever amount of time if it was going to do that. But I think in the immediate near term, I’m actually leaning towards it being bullish because the dips are getting bought and until the market stops buying the dip, the dips gonna get bought, right?
Yesterday that wasn’t really a dip of the magnitude that we’ve seen. Like that dip was about, I think it was 15%, yeah, it was 14.6%. That’s a 12% dip, Any dips of that magnitude that we’ve been seeing have been getting bought.
We obviously a 20% dip in the past and we also have couple of 10% dips on the way up and, you know, I wouldn’t lean towards actually being fairly constructive and bullish on Bitcoin. While Solana is still looking really strong. And the market as a whole, if you look at the Total 3 just for the Alt coins, I sell off into the bands holding at the bands, is that gonna be the start of a decline or is it gonna be just another dip to take us even higher?
Again, put people into real disbelief and then finally tops out, comes back to wherever we dip from today. Forms a base from there. I wouldn’t be surprised, you know, you have to understand that the emotions in the market are what’s gonna f**k you up if you are over leveraged.
So if you’re just chilling in spot, like most of us are, and everyone should be, you’re not feeling anything right now. I don’t feel any panic or fear or pain, but I do see a lot of it on the timeline. I think a lot of people just bet on Bitcoin having broken out, which is fair enough, it was broken out, it stayed above that looked like a confirmed breakout for a while, then it breaks below.
So then everyone will suddenly flip and say, so it was a false breakout. Bitcoin’s definitely going lower, but that’s often the perfect place for, uh, one of these traps to form where it looks like it’s gonna be bearish and then suddenly boom, it’s not bearish.
And what happens if it goes there at 60? Then what happens when bitcoin gets back above 70 or 71, people have to chase. So I don’t know, my guts are telling me, I think the bottom’s in, am I gonna trade it that way? Potentially, but I’ll be only trading on low timeframes, right?
I’ve got bitcoin spot that I’m holding. Not saying that I would necessarily buy a bunch of spot here, but I think we’ve had multiple pushes down, the first one is coming off the daily open or second one, then the false bottom and a push again, but it’s reclaimed back inside.
So this quite typical of intraday low something I would expect, price to actually rally off. and then if we’ve had this sell off and it’s shaken out a bunch of people, which it clearly has, right?
A lot of these kind of pullback significantly, I had a couple of, uh, shot-term trades open that get stopped out, which again is very common towards the bottom, right?, when your trades get stopped out, it’s easy to think, well we must be going down. It’s like if it was that simple, then everyone would just flip short.
And this is where, you know, dumb money, well now short, right? The would short at the top, they wouldn’t short on the way down, they would long the bounces. Then it goes down again, it goes down again, and you get this reflexive thinking where it keeps down so therefore it must get short. But that’s not true either.
May be Bitcoin’s gonna go lower and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did, But I think purely from a short term perspective, what’s most likely to happen right now? I would say this, this path that I drew some time ago.
So it will push above the highs, dips back below the lows, right? We’ve just done push back up and then go lower again. So in my mind, if we’re going back towards the 60K level, I think at first gonna rally, then it’s gonna go lower, and then we make our way to 60K and bottom out.
Or may be this was all just a shake out bellow all, all time high(ATH) and away it goes again. So both of those are potential paths. And as I look at it now, given that this is daily levels, In lower timeframe like H4, the only way to be looking is actually up. So if you’re short term longs, you could play a bounce up into the seventies and then take profits and close it out until there’s some real weakness where bitcoin continues to drop.
Uh, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Now it’s also, you know, it’s easy to say that the market overcooked or overheated. It’s gotta pull back, it’s gotta go lower. He’s not saying that right now. Eth, above the level, that is exactly where you wanna see it, right? Previous key level from 2022, broken out of it, pushed above back in retesting it bands are holding green.
Yes, there’s loads are in below ETH should go lower. Eth should go back to 33, it should go to $3,300 or whatever. But will it, I’m unsure the rest of the market, especially Solana, to still be strong, it had a clear breakout. It’s up here now at the highs finding support, consolidate up, push towards 200, don’t see any problems with Solana.
For Total3, I would like to see a red week. Are we near a red week? Still? Not even like, it’s not, it’s still a f*****g green week, right? I want to see one big red week on Total3, but it keeps bring strong and holding up. So dunno if it’s gonna come yet. Probably will come soon. That’s it, See you all later.
Sayonara – That’s all for Today, Do give your feedback.
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